CROOKS, in the Cape, never? (Kenilworth- 18 Aug.12)

My last rant was about 10 days ago when the PA pay out for that Thursday paid in the region of R16k!? (See Commentators’ Curse on African Betting Clan). I am never going to be an everyday Blogger and anyway, who wants to read postings on a meeting that paid R79.00 on a PA and seven favourites were in the places? It’s the big upsets I feel obliged to seethe & shout about, as most don’t seem to notice all the vagaries of these meetings or just shrug them off, c’est la vie- style!

One of those ‘occasional’ freak results I, and I’m sure others, were thinking about that particular day, thank goodness they don’t happen that often..?

Whoa, stop the bus, how wrong we were!

I predicted a ‘turkey shoot’ at Fairview (Got it partially right anyway: PA was high at R4200!); but got it seriously wrong by 24 hours in a big way! Kenilworth for last Saturday must take the cake for all BOMBS in 2012; even surpassing those very dubious results around JULY time (see earlier posts). Can I invent a new term here? Perhaps it can be called an “Ostrich Massacre” instead of a humble ‘turkey shoot’..?

The thing that amazes me is that a lot of the guys I speak to in Totes do not even realise the enormity of some of the pay outs on days like this. Fair enough, guys tend to stick to their own bets and might not be interested in other pay outs if they don’t lay those sorts of bets, especially when you’re losing your shirt! I even spoke to the trainer who sent out the longest winning shot of the day and he was blissfully unaware that there were 3 consecutive “No Winner” Pick-3 results! (of which his horse featured in 2 of those!)

Now the Pick-3 is a relatively new bet, which I do not play, but I cannot remember a carryover on one of these, never mind 3 in a row!

Okay, we all know it was wet and miserable, but give us punters a break already; so many occurrences at this disastrous meeting just don’t stack up so kosher..? Any 'genuine' winners on days like this can only be ‘lucky number/lucky name’-type punters or those privileged few, well connected ‘scammers’ who take us normal punters for expensive rides more often than not these days!

Some wise-arse might comment on why didn’t I just play GTG last Saturday, which paid an approx. R300 PA? Apart from being a Capetonian and (wrongfully) thinking I know local form, conditions, horses, trainers & jockeys etc.; my question to those Smart-Alecs' is: “how do you choose my friend”?

There were TWENTY horse race meetings last Saturday! (far too many & obscure in my humble opinion!) I think there were 9 from the UK, 3 from France, etc., etc...
The choice is nice sometimes, but this borders on the nonsensical!

Talk on the street is that those ‘boffins’ (?) at Gold Circle & Phumelela are introducing BUZKASHI from Afghanistan shortly to our already busy betting schedules? If you don’t know this race involves oversized ‘amateur’ (they might well beat our professionals on current form) civilian jockeys fighting over a Dead Goat!?At least one gets something to eat after that meeting- the poor Goat! See link:

(http://suite101.com/article/buzkashi-the-fight-over-a-dead-goat-a231824)

By the time I post this it will be exactly 7 days/168 hours since last Saturday’s first ‘doomed’ race went off and those dire results just carried on through 80% of the day!

 Below are a few more ‘worrying’ & ‘scary’ stats from last Saturday at Kenilworth:
- PA- R26814.00 to only 24 tickets! (how many tens of thousands of us play PA’s I ask you with tears in my baby blues.., and 24 winners? DODGY, I say!
- Jackpot & Pick-6 carryovers!
- The three, afore mentioned, Pick-3 carryovers!
- Four Win payouts over thirty bucks!
- Biggest Win payout- R136.80
- Seven Quartets over R11k! (two biggest were R87.2k and R112.7k)
- Apprentice Goomany (who I had never heard of till recently, bless him!) rode two winners, including the R136 Win Uber- Donkey!
-And, too many others to mention!

Be careful out in the trenches today guys- the conditions are not pleasant in the Cape!

Hopefully no more GRIM postings next week, ‘ey?

smallpunter

PA Payouts- Jinxed? (Commentators Curse)

As keen followers of sports, I’m sure most of us are familiar with the phrase “Commentators’ Curse”?

Test cricket followers will be especially familiar with the term as it happens surprisingly often. I love my cricket on the radio (SABC 2000 or TMS in the UK) and it has happened several times already in the current series against the Pomms!

Now I may be very far off ever commentating on sport on any public media platform (here’s hoping..?), but I feel that my mid-week Blog posting, about the really good & positive local PA pay outs we have had over the last fortnight or so, has somehow jinxed yesterdays result at The Vaal!
Did you see it?

With no PA pay outs of more than R670 in about twenty consecutive local meetings I followed, I see yesterday produced a ‘corker’ of R16122.00!!!??? Ouch! Most of the damage it seems came in the first and second legs with R30k & R24k quartets! Swingers were in the R28 to R52 region!

An acquaintance who has worked in this industry for THIRTY years calls them (the racing fraternity) all “CROOKS” on days like this- and I agree!

Like mentioned in earlier postings, hopefully this is one of those upset days that rarely happen and we all kind of expect every now and then, as long as they do not happen concurrently like back in June and July. (I say this because I did not play yesterday and sympathize with those that did- so technically I was up for the day)

The irony is that (and this also happens very seldom) this mammoth PA pay out was actually R2500 more than the Pick-6 pay out. I suppose you boys were helped by missing the 50/1 in Race 3 and the couplings that occasionally do help you, but with them donkeys coming in I suppose you’d have wanted a slightly better pay out..?

Keep it tight boys, I think today at Fairview could also be yet another ‘turkey shoot’!? (Def:- Turkey Shoot- "if a fight or a war is a 'turkey shoot', one side is certain to be completely defeated because the other side is much stronger!) Do I need to say who the 'other side' is..?

smallpunter

 

STILL RECOVERING AFTER JOCKEY CHASE...

I finished my previous posting complaining about the final chase for the top jockey of the year.
Now I know that competition ended two weeks ago and I do NOT want to come across an eternal whinger, but believe me if my winning outweighed my losing, this site might never have been started in the first place.

Most of my posts (and indeed the reason for founding this BLOG) have revolved around PA’s and their sometimes ludicrous and ‘suspicious’ payouts, but, like most punters, I also enjoy other bets, especially the odd Trifecta, Quartet or Win bet.

It was those WIN bets that cost me dearly going into the closing stages of the jockey title.
If only I just backed Anton (regardless of what “sick, lame, lazy & generally not too fast” [to quote Andrew Harrison] horse he was on) I might’ve come out tops, but with Gavin nicely ahead before that last weekend I decided to back him over the last few days, depending of course on the quality of his rides...
I went down backing Lerena vs. Marcus over that weekend, but the meeting I remember, and Rue, most is the one on Monday at Kimberley (Flamingo) where it cost me BIG (by my humble standards).

By the time I reached my local Tote on that Monday afternoon Marcus already had one early winner and they were just about tied for the title with four races and two full days to go. To my (obviously flawed) judgement Gavin had the better rides in the latter races at Flamingo and I might have doubled-up if I’d just backed him to PLACE in the last three races but instead decided on WINS; to my detriment!

This is what transpired:
Lerena placed on Rover T in the 7^th (to form, but I was optimistic for a win), then in the 8^th on the favourite London Vault he placed again (NOT expected and it cost me...); but in the 9^th Anton’s ‘donkey’, I think, was favourite with absolutely NO form, but I fancied the Lerena ride, Pick A Pocket, to bag him his first win of the entire meeting. Guess what? He ran third and Marcus romped home on the No. 9. Surprised, stunned? Yes, you bet!
Marcus 2- Lerena 0 for the day!

Those expensive & momentous Monday mistakes of mine ruled me out of the last two days of the jockey pursuit but I was never the less interested in the stats on the last day at Kenilworth with that 10 Race card!?

To me the bravest of all punters are you chaps who take on that beast of all bets, the PICK- 6.
As you can tell I struggle to pick a successful PA, so I truly ‘take my hat off’ to you boys for venturing into choosing 6 winners albeit with the aid of couplings and sometimes small percentage pay outs (1, 2 or 5% only); you are indeed BOLD punters!

Us PA players might have had some luck on that Wednesday at Kenilworth with a pay out of R191.00 (not me, again!?); but it’s those boys with the Big Nuts that I sympathise with when the Pick-6 paid an almighty R707K!!! Ouch! How does one even come close to that..?

These were some of the win bets/pay outs on that fateful day:
Race 1- R35-
Race 5- R33-
Race 6- R16-
Race 8- R15-
Race 9- R26-

I’m kinda glad that I did NOT have enough to bet that day on wins or doubles, there would only have been one significant and cruel conclusion!

I’m not sure if the mighty mister Marcus won on any of those ‘turkeys’ on that last day (OK, I know his very good and has proven his status over the years), but suffice to say, he reigned-in Gavin’s lead over those last 3 days of the season and ended up winning the whole bang-shoot thanks to his loyal backers and seemingly blind band of followers... (That’s what I heard anyway, that he won the championship- I stayed away from the Tote for almost 2 weeks!)

I will venture back cautiously and very carefully one day soon...

smallpunter

PA's Seem to be Stabilising?

Hello fellow punters? Apologies for no recent postings but one has been away recently helped, in some small way, by moderate winnings on PA’s that seem to have gained some normality in their recent payout amounts. Yes indeed, approx. R1550 from a R7.00 bet is most welcome, but that fairly handsome return barely paid for my time away, never mind all the other money lost on other apparently ‘sure things’!? (Mainly chasing Anton and Gavin towards the end of that top jockey race- see next blog)

I started this BLOG a while back based on the fact that PA payouts for most of the first part of this year have been inconsistent, unpredictable and at times outrageous! This became even more apparent in the build up to the peak of the KZN season. If you see one of my earlier postings, in particular, you’ll see what these payouts were like in/and around the JULY weekend! (e.g.: 7700, 2200, 15300, 14600 and 4550 for PA’s, to name just a few, on consecutive days- Friday thru Monday!!!???)

My main reason for ‘venting my spleen’ in this manor was and is that the PA by its nature should be a bet that we catch from time-to-time. I’m sure with the recent ‘respectable’ payouts (Not one above R670 in two weeks- see table below) that a few of you out there have indeed collected and stared enjoying your punting a bit more as well.

I, however, am still ‘smarting’ and trying to recover from supporting Lerena in the jockey chase, where I seriously thought he had a chance, but NO, the mighty mister Marcus and his seemingly blind band of loyal followers romped home on all sorts of ‘chancers’!? I did not even play the last Tuesday and Wednesday of July (A 10-race card at K/worth!?), as I ‘did my tom’ pursuing Gavin over the weekend and that last Monday at Kimberley (30^th July)!

DATE	VENUE	PAYOUT- R
TUES-14/08	SCOTTSVILLE	42
MON-13/08	FLAMINGO	107
SUN-12/08	C/WOOD	414
SAT-11/08	TURF.	30
FRI-10/08	ARLINGTON	526
THUR-09/08	TURF.	123
WED-08/08	RAINED OUT	0
TUES-07/08	VAAL	61
MON-06/08	FAIRVIEW	669
SUN-05/08	TURF.	180
SAT-04/08	C/WOOD	138
SAT-04/08	FLAMINGO	135
FRI-03/08	ARLINGTON	257
THUR-02/08	VAAL	250
WED-01/08	C/WOOD	129
TUES-31/07	K/WORTH	192
MON-30/07	FLAMINGO	364